UK Heatwave: Climate Change Makes 32°C Heat in England 100 Times More Likely, Scientists Warn
England is currently enduring its first major heatwave of 2025, with temperatures forecast to soar as high as 34°C in parts of eastern England. Scientists have revealed that climate change has made such extreme heat events 100 times more likely than in pre-industrial times. This alarming finding underscores the escalating threat of global warming on the UK’s weather patterns, public health, and infrastructure. Health authorities have issued amber heat alerts across England, warning vulnerable populations to take precautions amid soaring temperatures.
Climate Change and the Rising Likelihood of Extreme Heat
Heatwave Frequency and Intensity Soaring
A rapid scientific analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group shows that human-driven climate change has drastically increased the probability of extreme heat in England. Prior to the widespread burning of fossil fuels, a June day reaching 32°C would have been a once-in-2,500-years event. Now, with global temperatures approximately 1.3°C above pre-industrial levels, such heatwaves are expected roughly every five years.
Moreover, the likelihood of a heatwave—defined in southeast England as three consecutive days above 28°C—has increased tenfold. Previously, such events occurred once every 50 years; today, they happen about once every five years.
Temperature Records and Future Risks
The UK Met Office forecasts highs of 34°C in eastern England and around 33°C in London during this heatwave, marking some of the hottest June temperatures in decades. While the record June temperature of 35.6°C from 1976 is unlikely to be broken this year, climate models suggest heatwaves could last up to 39 days in the current climate, compared to the 18-day record in 1976.
The chance of UK days reaching 40°C has increased more than 20 times since the 1960s, highlighting the rapid warming trend.
Health Risks and Official Warnings
Amber Heat Health Alerts Issued
The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued an amber heat health alert for all of England from June 19 to June 23, signaling significant health risks, especially for people aged 65 and older and those with heart or respiratory conditions.
Dr. Agostinho Sousa, Head of Extreme Events and Health Protection at UKHSA, urged the public to check on vulnerable neighbors and take sensible precautions during the heatwave.
Vulnerable Populations at Greatest Risk
Experts warn that heatwaves pose severe risks to the elderly, people with lung or heart diseases, and those living in poorly insulated homes. Maja Vahlberg from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre emphasized that most heat-related deaths occur indoors and often among isolated individuals.
The inequality of heat exposure is stark: poorer communities face greater risks due to working in hot environments and inadequate housing.
Scientific and Expert Reactions
Climate Scientists Sound the Alarm
Dr. Friederike Otto, Associate Professor at Imperial College London, condemned political calls for increased fossil fuel use amid worsening climate impacts. She stressed that without rapid emission reductions to net zero, the UK will face more dangerous heatwaves, fires, and flood.
Dr. Ben Clarke, also from Imperial College, highlighted that with global warming currently at 1.3°C and projected to reach 3°C this century, the UK must prepare for hotter, more frequent heatwaves that will strain health services and infrastructure.
The Global Context of Heatwaves
Heatwaves are responsible for approximately 489,000 deaths worldwide annually, with the 2003 European heatwave alone causing over 70,000 fatalities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states with virtual certainty that human-caused climate change is driving the rise in heatwave frequency and severity.
Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist, warned that the Earth’s energy imbalance and greenhouse gas emissions are accelerating, making it nearly impossible to avoid surpassing the critical 1.5°C warming threshold soon.
Environmental and Societal Impacts
Increased Wildfire Risks
The combination of soaring temperatures and a very dry spring has heightened wildfire risks across the UK. Theodore Keeping, a wildfire researcher, cautioned that outdoor fire use should be minimized to prevent devastating blazes.
Infrastructure and Air Quality Challenges
Heatwaves disrupt transport systems, increase energy demand, and worsen air quality, compounding health risks. Dr. Clarke noted that these impacts will intensify as heatwaves become more frequent and severe.
The 2025 UK heatwave starkly illustrates the tangible impacts of climate change on everyday life. Scientific evidence confirms that such extreme heat events are no longer rare anomalies but increasingly common occurrences fueled by human activity. The health risks, environmental hazards, and societal disruptions demand urgent action to reduce emissions globally and enhance adaptation measures locally.
Without swift policy changes and community preparedness, the UK faces a future of more frequent, intense, and deadly heatwaves, with vulnerable populations disproportionately affected.
